What can we learn from 2020, so that we can be more ready for 2021?
Will 2021 be any different than this year? If so how? Maybe more importantly, why? What are you and your neighbors doing now to shape your new normal?
With the gift of hindsight we can see how helpful it would have been to engage in a little more probability forecasting so that we could have anticipated some of the changes that 2020 dumped on us. As the pandemic has tragically demonstrated, little anticipation can be the difference between life and death. Most of what caught us “off guard” this year was in already in the forecast. The signs were there. Imagine how 2020 might have been different if you, your friends, your family, your organization’s, your church, your business, or your government could have read the signs of what was coming and planned accordingly.
One of the primary reasons Tom Sine and I co-wrote 2020s Foresight was to offer some of the practical skills we’re learning from our lives of anticipating the future. You don’t have to be a professional futurist or a practical theologian to anticipate the future. Gallop, Barna, Pew, and the like don’t have a corner on this work. You can do it! We don’t want you and those you care about to be caught off guard by the many changes charging toward you.
Regardless who wins the 2020 US Presidential election COVID-19 will still be here next year… and we will likely have a COVID-economy for some time. Our global climate crisis will still be raging. The disparity between rich and poor will continue to widen. Black and brown bodied people are still being killed by our unjust systems of “policing” and incarcerated at inhumane rates. Housing costs continue to rise, and more and more people are either houseless or even homeless. Children separated from their parents will still be held in cages at US borders. 1000s of people will still be dying of gun violence. In many places depression and death by suicide are on the rise; as are domestic violence, separation/divorce, and drug/alcohol addiction. We will still see growing numbers of unemployed and underemployed young people. Our data will still be mined and extorted for profit by tech companies as the Code War continues to rage; in fact they are harvesting more of our data because we have to spend our even more of our lives online. And the list of changes that 2021 will likely to bring get way more particular as you listen to what’s going on in your local context.
Surely one could look at all this feel overwhelmed or recoil in fear. But…
As people who follow Christ we seek to practice resurrection hope. Together, we bear with one another in suffering while encouraging each other to look fear in the eye and choose faith, hope, and love in its stead. Resurrection hope can transform fear-inducing change into Shalomic design opportunities. Any crisis can be an opportunity to discover a new way of love and service together… this is what God does!
In our little book we walk through three simple steps:
1. Anticipating – Forecast probable changes that are likely impact you, your neighbors, & your neighborhood. What is most likely going to happen?
2. Reflecting – Open up to listen & discover God’s Shalom for your people within your place. How might the things that are likely going to happen be an invitation to follow Christ into new expressions of loving God and loving our neighbor as ourselves?
3. Innovating – Research & experiment unto a thriving & just future for all within your parish. What might you be able to do now, so you’re ready to respond with Christian love rather than react out of surprise and fear?
As you might imagine our book walks through through these three steps. And it provides lots of real-world examples of people like you and me Anticipating, Reflecting, & Innovating. We are not alone. We can help usher in a new normal as an expression of love of God and love of neighbor as oneself.
Peace, dwight
